HawthorneVillager.com

I say prices will continue to go up in milton and toronto until 2016 and beyond. You say they will go down when? Can you bang it down to a year?

please dont encourage him!

like i said, i didnt think you would understand.

Ok thanks. Ive got the champagne on ice for the end of this year then.

Ok thanks. Im thinking it will be worth at least $450K in 2014.

Still be living in it.

But if they wait, the house will be more expensive. The sooner the better they should get in the market.

Definitely agree with you there. 30 yr olds should not be buying 700,000 homes. Unless they make over 200,000 combined.

My point is around the fact everyone keeps saying "But look at 1989!" -- what about 1989? Yep, there was a crash -- there will be many more. 22 years ago the world was a different place, the country was a different place and the economy was a different place. We didn't have record levels of immigration. We didn't have outsourcing. We manufactured things instead of having mostly professional or service jobs. The world was different.

I don't buy the "but it happened in 1989" argument. I would say we could have the exact same conditions in 2011 as we did in 1989 and there could just as easily be absolutely NO real estate crash what-so-ever.

And yes, people who keep looking at trends usually end up missing opportunities or broke -- because they are historic -- and history. The economic situation of a country or the world are not finite like doing a science experiment where you heat a beaker to 173.7 degrees and the same thing happens over and over and over again. You are looking at less than 100 years of housing stats. In that 100 years we:

1) Invented flight
2) Invented space travel
3) Brought women into the workforce creating the double income
4) Invented birth control which delayed families from the late teens/early twenties well into the thirties and forties
5) Invented post secondary education and then sent a record number of children to post secondary education
6) Invented the internet, outsourcing, globalization, global economy and multiplied the worlds millionaires ten fold.


I can go on and on... I'm just saying, stop comparing to the past... and even worse, stop comparing us to other countries. Apples & Oranges. I give you the arguments you post about income levels, debt levels, etc. because they are rationale, but just stating something will happen because it has happened, doesn't fly with me.

Anyways, there will be a drop in real estate prices.. just like there will be a drop in gold prices, or oil prices, or ipad prices, etc. It's the way the world works -- supply vs. demand. For anyone to call when it will happen and by how much is ludicrous. If it were possible, there would be far more billion or trillionaires around. Right now, in the GTA, there are major supply issues. These were caused by a combination of builder panic during the economic meltdown (where they stopped buying land and stopped building homes) and the lack of serviceable land around the GTA. This will keep prices up.

Statements were made about "10% drop vs. peak price" -- which haven't happened yet. Will they? Sure... when? Nobody knows. Maybe today.. maybe next month... maybe next year... maybe in 2022.

The big question is, how much did you pay today (and pay off) from now until that drop happens. And will you be better off for it?

My answer is -- Yes. Buy now, buy soon, buy with your brain and not with your emotions, and buy long term -- you will *always* be fine.

Sure, there is a possibility prices may plummet, and you will get a cheaper house -- maybe 13 years from now after throwing away rent money and just how much further ahead will you be? You lived in someone elses house, paid their mortgage/investment and have nothing to show for it. Meanwhile, the other "sucker" who paid high, has had 2% raises every year, paid down 13 years of their mortgage and have only 12 years left, own half of their house and owe FAR less than you are paying to buy and "start" your 25 years of payments.

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Resale home stats are also closely tied to the new home construction market, and unless you're in a hurry I dont know why anyone would by resale vs new build. They're comparable in pricing, and you get to choose everything, you dont have to hunt for the floor plan you want with dark hard wood, you just go buy it. Look at Colin's permit post too, theres no shortage of applications for new builds and there's a reason for it.

How many CEO's do you know who rent? How about Financial industry executives? Bank executives?

Maybe because they realize tax free appreciation of a long term investment is always a better alternative to rent. Especially with the interest rates we are seeing right now.

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I agree, theres definately side benefits to an older home/neighborhood. As time goes on though I think youre going to find it a much tougher sell.. One reason people get into the older homes is for character of the house itself and we're starting to grow into an age where the homes of 20-30 on years ago really on average have no character in a traditional sense, they're just 20 year old cookie cutters.

I look at a 20yr old house right now and I really dont see value in buying that home (unless you really want to live in specific area). I just see a lot of work for little gain. You could do some pretty incredible landscaping on a new build with a 30k budget (instead of a roof, furnace, wireing,windows, attic insulation etc etc.

In other parts of the country though you're starting to see more and more people demo these houses and rebuild the house they want on the bigger older lots, but thats a significant cost investment more than average people are willing to spend. Lot sizes will always be a factor but the older I get the less I feel that I need a bigger backyard.

Hmmm.. interesting... He also seems to support my views that Canada is no USA.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... le1864866/

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your comparing apples to grapefruits. but if sales fell 12% but my margins increased 60% id be fine with that.

Love how people spin this as doom and gloom when it clearly states less people sold their home, but the average price has gone up meaning things are moving upwards.