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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 7:50 pm 
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Batman wrote:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/04/19/eddys-story/


"I only had work during my 4 month co-op work terms, she made decent income being fresh outta college but we obviously couldn’t afford a house so we settled on something cheap. A $335,000, 800 square foot cube. Fice year term, 30 year amortization, 10% down. Got my $15k from my daddy cause I’m a spoiled brat."

...and that right there is your problem. Entitlement. Why should he feel entitled to own a house fresh out of school with a 4 month co-op where he had to borrow his down payment from the folks.

That is so the 1990s.. those days are over! I'm kinda happy this type is being priced out of the market ;)

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:16 am 
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I also believe the crash in 1989 was -- once again -- a by-product of poor lending practices around real estate and collapse of financial institutions in the United States which affected their economy and thus ours. The Savings & Loan Crisis.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdome ... Crisis.htm

Very similar situation to what was experienced, once again, in 2008. I believe the Savings & Loan crisis started in the early 80s and ended in 1989 with a government bail out financial institutions -- Pretty much the same time real estate crashed in Canada.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:14 am 
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Ol Skool wrote:
DTC,

You keep bringing this up. But we don't need an economic collapse, massive job losses or a high foreclosure rate to cause a substantial housing correction.


Again, I think you do. Any economist will say you need a trigger. Even if you look at 1989 in Toronto -- The peak was in 1989 -- It was the end of that year that the Bank of Canada decided to jump over night lending rates to a whopping 14% in an attempt to get inflation under control which had the effect of throwing Canada into a massive recession. This increased unemployment in Toronto from 4% to 11% within a year between mid 1990 and mid 1991. 4% unemployment in Toronto flooded the city and province with new people seeking work and working which put a strain on the supply of housing which drove up prices. This influx of new people peaked about 3 months after the real estate prices peaked. Once the unemployment nearly tripled, the inflow of new people trickled off and didn't rebound to those levels again until late 1999.

From 2000 to 2010 the city/region saw another increase in population, which again put a strain on the supply of housing and thus drove up prices.

Remember, the rock bottom interest rates have only been in effect for the past 2 years -- they can't explain the run-up from 1999 to 2008.

Again, I stick by the fact that massive unemployment, high interest rates and rapid inflation were the cause of the 1989 real estate crash and as such, we would need a similar perfect storm to see it happen again.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:30 am 
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Ol Skool wrote:
Again, where do you think interest rates are going with inflation at 3.3% and the BOC target at 2%. And your wrong. It was consumers tightening there belts in 1990 to 1991 to hold on to there homes that led to the recession. Rates have to historical low or declining for 10 years. Don't confuse "emergency' rates with low rates. Interest rates rose to qwell inflation and cool an overheated housing market. Both things present now.


Well, I guess we will have to agree to disagree on that. The tightening was caused by the massive increase in interest rates and the fact people all around them were losing their jobs. Remember, high interest rates chokes business growth and investment.

In any event, I do agree we are definitely in bubble territory -- at least in some areas. I do agree that things are finite and a slight trigger could be the pin that pops the balloon. I don't agree that we will see US style collapse. I think that if the "emergency rates" don't rapidly increase to 10-11-12% we don't have issues. The 5 year fixed rates were in the mid/high 6's in 2008 and people did just fine.

Only time will tell. I guess the new GTA "peak" has to be updated as the price in March 2011 (and I will take a guess April) is probably much higher than it was this time last year.

The question will be if there is a correction, will it wipe out the gains people have seen in houses they purchased in 2002-2008. If not, I don't see a major issue. If someone paid $330,000 in 2007 and their house is now appraised at $459,000, it would take a pretty massive near 30% drop to even have them phased - let alone the additional 4 years worth of equity (plus even 5% down) put into the home -- unless of course they are HELOC fans -- but then that's their fault.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 10:05 am 
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Ol Skool wrote:

Again, where do you think interest rates are going with inflation at 3.3% and the BOC target at 2%. And your wrong. The housing bubble of the late 80s as well as the contraction of consumer spending from consumers tightening there belts in 1990 to 1991 to hold on to there homes that led to the recession. Rates have been historical low or declining for 10 years. Don't confuse "emergency' rates with low rates. Interest rates rose to qwell inflation and cool an overheated housing market. Both things present now. Notice you replaced foreclosures with high inflation and financial collapse to higher interest rates so you aren't sticking to anything. The only thing you "stuck with"...massive unemployment wasn't present in 1990.


Actually, BoC bases their rates on core inflation, which hit 1.7%, not 3.3%:

"The Bank of Canada uses core CPI inflation, the year-over-year rate of change of the consumer price index excluding food, energy, and the effects of changes in indirect taxes, as the operational guide for monetary policy. "

So they have room to wait, and want to, as raising the interest rate will raise the CAD$, which is what they do not want to do as it will hurt the export based economy. They will probably raise twice this year, .25 each time, once in July and one more time after that, but if they can get any evidence they can use to leave the rate where it is, they will probably leave it there.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:44 pm 
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Dabills wrote:
Anyone have any insight the housing prices in Milton in 2003? Thats about where we are headed i think.


230K for the Lindsay model (1665 sqft). We bought phase one and paid 204K. I can tell you right now, you are completely wrong about going back to 2003 prices. That model right now has sold for anywhere between 360-405K. There is no way that prices will decline 25% or more. Sure there may be an adjustment, but you are looking at 5% or so.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:46 pm 
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Dabills wrote:
Anyone have any insight the housing prices in Milton in 2003? Thats about where we are headed i think.


Maybe, maybe not. That's the joy of making economic predictions.. they are simply predictions. For if anyone could actually tell you what will happen with no uncertainty, they would be filthy rich.... buying low, selling high, buying low, selling high.

In fact, one of those people would have bought 10 houses in Milton in 2001, knowing they would double or tripple, then dump them in April 2011, knowing that was the maximum PEAK.

Ah, I wish I had that kind of foresight.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:01 pm 
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Dabills wrote:
I agree DTC, and you know what. some people do have that foresight, this is why i say people buying right now should really just look at things i realize the massive gains are gone. I will put my name on that actually. i am not out to make exact predictions but people buying today will make no gains in the next 5 years..


This I am willing to agree on. It's a most likely scenario given the here and now. I just always preach that "it's anyones guess" what the future will hold.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:01 pm 
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Dabills wrote:
Thanks Kamato, maybe i am wrong. What is your 5% based on? That would be ideal and salaries could rise to catch up. I wish i had your optimism.

I agree DTC, and you know what. some people do have that foresight, this is why i say people buying right now should really just look at things i realize the massive gains are gone. I will put my name on that actually. i am not out to make exact predictions but people buying today will make no gains in the next 5 years.

when i bought 5 years gave me a great return on investment. i got lucky though.


When my dad and I cleaned out my grandfather's basement a few years ago, I found a stack of Toronto Star's from the 80's and I looked in the New in Homes section. Guess what a 'New' build home cost in 1982 at Younge and Steeles? Care to guess - 42K, that same house in the early 2000's would have gone for over 450-500K. One of his first homes back in the late 60's was on Mt. Pleasant, north of Eglinton, and he paid 21K for it at the time, when he sold at the end of the 70's, they sold it 65K (back then, that was a great return) - 15 years later in the mid 90's, that house would have sold for 500+ and today it would go for 900+ as a tear down and rebuild.

Milton wont ever be like that, but it puts something into perspective, housing prices do fluctuate and they go up, and sometimes they go down. How long has this post been going on for? If people say that bad things are going to happen, most of the time, they eventually will. You have been saying that there is going to be a housing colapse, when will it happen? What is your prediction?

With my first house, my wife and I had to save and make sacrifices, but guess what, we did so, so we could own a home. Would we have liked a 2 car garage 2600 sq ft home at the time, hell yeah, but we couldnt afford it, so be bought within our budget, not everyone does that. You keep saying that these home equitity lines of credit are a bad thing and that if you cant afford it, you shouldnt spend the money? Let me understand something here, if someone has 25K left on their mortgage and they want to borrow 25K against it to do some upgrades on their home, why shouldnt they? They would get a better rate on the interest then if they went to the bank and asked for a loan or put it on their line of credit? Do you also think that people who take a loan or some type of financing shouldnt buy a car?

Why dont you think that people wont make gains in 5 years? If someone bought their house 8 months ago(new build), and the builder keeps raising the price 10-15K each release, then the seller definately has the potential to make a return from the sale, albeit, not at a 25% retun.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:45 pm 
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Dabills wrote:
More on the debt issues of today. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... le1994548/

wow BC residents are in trouble. they also have a negative savings rate.


BC is an entirely different beast. There is no reasoning anything to do with BC.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 7:54 am 
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Dabills wrote:
Yeah, BC is just crazy. i literally have no idea how anybody young would ever buy a home there.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... le1997038/

Quote:
Investments by Chinese buyers such as Ms. Wang and Mr. Huang are playing a role in helping to buoy the hottest real estate market in Canada, according to local realtors. Canadian realtors do not tally data on foreign investment in residential real estate, unlike the national realty association in the U.S., but widespread anecdotal reports from local players suggest investment cash from China is a small but significant factor, especially in the market for expensive homes. The additional demand may be helping to underpin a market whose prices seem to impossibly levitate above the typical local incomes in the region.

And it may increase, as more affluent Chinese aim to move, as well as invest their money abroad. There are nearly 600,000 high-net people worth at least $1.5-million in China this year, according to the consultancy Bain & Co. About 10 per cent of them have already left, another 10 per cent are planning to apply for immigration, and about 30 per cent are considering it, according to results based on Bain’s survey of 2,500 rich Chinese released last week.

The method of exit is to qualify abroad as an “immigrant investor.” In Canada, that means an immigrant must have a net worth of $1.6-million and make an $800,000 investment – figures that are twice what they were last year. The Vancouver region has already welcomed about half of 10,000 or so immigrants who come to Canada annually under such programs.

Yolanda Chen and Simon Yang arrived earlier this year as immigrant investors. The couple, and their six-year-old daughter, came for the same reason cited by a majority of people from China: a better education system. Ms. Chen, who was a television executive in Shanghai, has purchased a $2-million home in White Rock, south of Vancouver.

“It’s a better, and healthier, life here,” she said.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 2:07 pm 
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Another interesting take:

http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/article/977665

Quote:
Here we are, one year later, and far from falling 25 per cent, house prices have continued to rise. The latest numbers from RealNet Canada reveal a 6.5 per cent increase in the lowrise price index (to $522,034) and a 6.4 per cent increase in the highrise price index (to $446,965), year over year. In real dollar terms, new lowrise homes are up $32,000 while new condos are up $27,000 since last year.

Appreciation in the resale housing market has been even more pronounced, with the mid-April numbers reported by the Toronto Real Estate Board earlier this week detailing a 12 per cent year/year increase, rising from $430,271 last year to $483,165 this year, which amounts to a lift of $53,000.

...

In retrospect, anybody that hit the brakes on their way to the sales office last year has clearly lost substantial ground in the housing market. For the 37,000 people that did buy new homes in the GTA in 2010, good on you — you’re up! If you decided to wait for the 25 per cent off special, let’s just say the best before date on that coupon has expired.

I’ll tell you why I never bought into Rosenberg’s forecast or that of any of the other economists who predicted house price declines. On the lowrise side of the housing market, supply levels are at an all-time low and I can still remember that supply/demand curve from Economics 101 showing what happens to prices when demand remains constant and supply decreases.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 2:13 pm 
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Quote:
Here we are, one year later, and far from falling 25 per cent, house prices have continued to rise. The latest numbers from RealNet Canada reveal a 6.5 per cent increase in the lowrise price index (to $522,034) and a 6.4 per cent increase in the highrise price index (to $446,965), year over year. In real dollar terms, new lowrise homes are up $32,000 while new condos are up $27,000 since last year.

Appreciation in the resale housing market has been even more pronounced, with the mid-April numbers reported by the Toronto Real Estate Board earlier this week detailing a 12 per cent year/year increase, rising from $430,271 last year to $483,165 this year, which amounts to a lift of $53,000.

...

In retrospect, anybody that hit the brakes on their way to the sales office last year has clearly lost substantial ground in the housing market. For the 37,000 people that did buy new homes in the GTA in 2010, good on you — you’re up! If you decided to wait for the 25 per cent off special, let’s just say the best before date on that coupon has expired.

I’ll tell you why I never bought into Rosenberg’s forecast or that of any of the other economists who predicted house price declines. On the lowrise side of the housing market, supply levels are at an all-time low and I can still remember that supply/demand curve from Economics 101 showing what happens to prices when demand remains constant and supply decreases.


Exactly. They've been saying it for years and it never happens. This year it will continue to go up. And in 2012, there will be another article about how housing is going to take a hit in the GTA. Keep in mind they're doing their job. Selling papers and getting ratings. Look around you and dont believe everything you read and hear.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 3:15 pm 
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RichardAndLiz wrote:
Exactly. They've been saying it for years and it never happens. This year it will continue to go up. And in 2012, there will be another article about how housing is going to take a hit in the GTA. Keep in mind they're doing their job. Selling papers and getting ratings. Look around you and dont believe everything you read and hear.


I think at the very least, we can all agree on one thing. (Well, those who purchased a home in 2010 and before) and that is the answer to the question posed as the title of this thread:

When will Housing prices deline as projected 10%

I believe we can all agree, the answer is "Who cares!"

I think for me even a 20-25% (of todays market value of my house) I'd still say "Who cares!" -- It would take a lot more than that to bring me back down past what I've paid.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 3:20 pm 
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Ol Skool wrote:
You can't have it both ways. Questioning the integrity of all journalist who at least are suppose to be objective and do their due diligence about a subject, on one hand. But then summarily dismiss the author's motives above just because you happen to agree with him, when he is the President and CEO of the Building Industry and Land Development Association. No conflict of interest or lack of objectivity there. He is doing his job as well. :wink:


I believe he was referring to David Rosenberg, one of the biggest economists ranting about Canada's bubble, changing his tune.

http://blog.oulahen.com/2011/04/07/upda ... ng-market/

Quote:
“As such there is no evidence of any meaningful supply-demand imbalance that should undercut real estate valuation”

“We see no reason why the bank of canada should be aggressive in raising rates, and at the same time, the demographics in favour of real estate are actually quite constructive, notable the influence from Canada’s business immigration platform. Note that in 2009, net international immigration to Canada surges 13 per cent. So not only is the country acting as a magnet for international capital flow, but Canada is also being increasingly viewed as a stable place to do business and a desirable area to live.”

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