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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:34 am 
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Fred D wrote:
munchito wrote:
are the Feb YoY drops in home prices a surprise? Did we all forget the manic state of house prices early last year? If prices are down this July vs. last year then that is of some interest.


BINGO.


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courtesy Financial Post


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:30 am 
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Mr.Peppermint wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-09/canada-jobless-rate-returns-to-four-decade-low-in-february

"best Feb ever since 1990"
"immigration buoys prices"
"Prices are holding up better, particularly in the condo segment, and is up 20 percent since last February"


Please refer to the chart posted above. Prices up 20% since last February 2017???? LOL - you've really drunk the TREB kool aid, haven't you? either that or your dreaming in technicolour.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:27 pm 
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Yes funny how facts can be made to confirm any desired theory. Glad to see TREB step away from their "Benchmark" BS number, suggesting there is no problem, that wasn't what they were clearly saying on Tuesday.

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As an asset class, how could even the stated current level of $767,818 be a rational point to deline to? That would have meant an increase of 45% over 3 years from the 2015 value, doesn't that sound fishy? What else have you got that has done this? And don't say dope stocks. I'm no expert, but given the nature of real estate, how there can be any comparison to any other investment vehicle or even the stock market itself? There is nothing to feel good about yet as far as I can see.

Here's my comically naive compilation of that TREB Fin Post chart, along with some helper info (sorry if huge), I'm a visual learner which I'm told is a euphemism for smart. To me it demonstrates just how much sh*t we're still in here.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:14 am 
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B&T402 wrote:
As an asset class, how could even the stated current level of $767,818 be a rational point to deline to? That would have meant an increase of 45% over 3 years from the 2015 value, doesn't that sound fishy? What else have you got that has done this? And don't say dope stocks. I'm no expert, but given the nature of real estate, how there can be any comparison to any other investment vehicle or even the stock market itself? There is nothing to feel good about yet as far as I can see.


One small correction to your calculation - the ~45% rise is over 4 years, not 3 (starting point was Jan 2014). That's about 11.5% growth per year (non-compounded), which doesn't look quite as bad when compared to the overall stock market, which I think has been returning about 10% YoY over the long term.

Growth is still too high for property though IMO and is definitely in danger 'wait and see' territory. I just don't see anything in the immediate term that is a huge red flag trigger for a real downturn (sharp unemployment or interest rate hikes, slowing of immigration into GTA, lifting of artificial land restriction laws/Greenbelt, etc)


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:40 am 
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Blame minimum wage increase for cost of housing increase
All those Walmart employees are pushing up condo market

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:49 am 
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Well. Thanks for the correction, glossed right over that one in a rush. Comically naive chart removed for relevance. I'm in a better mood now!

I'm a wait and see person as well, and part of my pique over all of this is that I have been waiting and seeing that there has to be something deeply wrong going on here. The combined efforts of governments and regulators plus the hoardes of Realtors in a wild feeding frenzy have slowly and systematically made waste of the real estate market over the past decade or so. To drive these numbers so far out of line, so far away from sustainability. What did they think "we" were going to do with such ridiculously cheap money for that long? And what did they think Realtors would do with such a business opportunity?

For as much as I believe in a free market economy, I really do not blame the consumer quite as much as every other player. We have not been seeing a truly free market situation unfolding here I don't think. There are big differences, and real estate is not like any other consumer product. You don't see banks and governments up to their elbows manipulating any other industry, as our biggest debt real estate is very different.

Here's the thing, will this correction (more coming) serve a purpose? Have all players had their knuckles rapped and will now behave sensibly and keep housing sustainably affordable here? Not optimistic about that, I think there will be a lot of resistance to the devaluation process by those profiting, to ride this thing out for as long as possible, a few years.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:08 pm 
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without having an experts view into the details of government policy on housing, I'm not sure how differently they could have handled the situation going back to 2008. They surely needed to inject themselves into the financial markets to provide liquidity, and needed to keep things attractive to foster economic growth. I suppose they figured seeing increasing household debt by keeping rates low as a lesser evil than higher unemployment and persistent deflation.

I don't blame realtors at all either. Do I disagree with some of their tactics? Sure. But IMO they are merely doing as many of us would to excel in their industry and by the rules placed in front of them. You can question their value versus the fees you pay them, but at the end of the day they are successful because the public has a (perceived or real) need for them.

In fact, I'm actually pretty amazed that they've been able to keep control of the transactional market as much as they have in this age of technology and self-serve. You see technology disruption in almost every facet of our lives now, but the FSBO's, ComFree's, etc. of the world haven't made much of a dent as far as I can see. I understand that housing is more complex and involved than say, building an Uber app, but I am still shocked that a tech revolution in this area still hasn't swept over us yet. I'm sure it's coming, but not before Fred owns his 4 islands in the Maldives (just testing that he's reading this!)

If there's anyone to blame, it's greedy people! Just like in any other market, there will be winners, losers, and a bunch of people on the sidelines eating their popcorn, watching the train wreck (maybe).


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:53 pm 
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Well said, nothing to add. Let that be the gavel bang until we do more waiting and seeing and popcorn munching. Have a good Summer, you too Fred! (of course they read this crap :D )

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:02 pm 
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https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-es ... f-rebound/

Quelle Surprise

Market slows in winter and picks up come spring

Bubbles are seriously overrated

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:56 am 
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Mr.Peppermint wrote:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-toronto-housing-market-show-signs-of-rebound/

Quelle Surprise

Market slows in winter and picks up come spring

Bubbles are seriously overrated


Spring‽! Did you say SPRING‽!!!!!!

When!!! WHERE!!!!

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:13 am 
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Cannot stop reading this guy, sorry. http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/06/15/the-chill-2/
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Blog dog Steve was not impressed when he logged on to HouseSigma and found the following notice:

Based on the current Toronto Real Estate Board regulations, we are restricted from providing sold information to the general public. Effective June 15th, 2018, HouseSigma will only provide sold Information to customers who are working with our agents.

Yep. Those mean sonofabitch® realtor lawyers have managed to shut down yet another online source of housing information, feeling that an ill-informed and ignorant consumer is likely to pay more and keep the party going. As you may know, TREB has been in a long-running legal battle with the feds and progressive brokers who think buyers should know what houses sell for, their sales history, days-on-market and how many times they may have been re-listed. So far the Audi-drivers have lost every legal battle, but still maintain the position that MLS data is secret and anyone trying to make it available deserves to have their head on a stick.

Cool site: https://housesigma.com/site/

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:07 am 
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Justin Trudeau apoligizes for this

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:58 am 
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https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/08/26/revenge-5/
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A brave decision by the nation’s top law court has nixed the Toronto real estate cartel’s fight with the Competition Bureau to keep its data secret. Soon lots of sites will be brimming with things never before seen in the open. Days on market. The complete sales history of a property. Comparative values in a neighbourhood. Listing and re-listing dates. Prices changes. Ask and sold values. Everything. Right down to the undies.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:09 am 
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“Brave”

This will be very interesting. Now do Vancouver!

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:08 am 
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Given their voting habits, those YVR types may be too dumb for this to seep in anyway. It's always someone else's fault you know.
Feelings Over Facts ™

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