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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 3:09 pm 
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Location: Hawthorne Village Vista
Here comes the deline! FINALLY!!!

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/0 ... -cent.html

BiG CARinG...


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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 3:12 pm 
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Location: 4th line / St Laurent
It's already here. Almost 10% in the past few weeks. The key is not holding onto the inflated values from April and everything will be fine once the current inventory clears out. A little further drop and the buyers will likely come out for the 'deals' again!
Let's see what happens -- super interesting to follow the daily changes, nevermind weekly!

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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 3:43 am 
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Totalpkg wrote:
Here comes the deline! FINALLY!!!

A 1% drop in 60 days? (esp considering the huge number of sale last month?)

This thread is so full of dreamers

Have you seen the lineups when homes are listed?


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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 5:54 am 
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Location: 4th line / St Laurent
Price have come down almost 10% from the peaks in late March early April. That's 10%. Many houses that were selling for 900k would now only get $810-825k.
Were the peak prices ridiculous? Sure.

I'm not preaching anything since I don't believe in the deline. I'm just sharing actual stats from the market that many people don't know. Hardest hit have been the single car detached since that is what there is most supply of.

The good news??? Only 15 new listings in all of Milton yesterday when we have had a string of 35-50 every day for a long time, which is what got us into this.

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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 7:18 am 
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Sure is interesting watching this unfold, whatever it is, and how ever you choose to interpret it. If this thing plateaus at current "delined" levels, or delines more, there will be a lot of explanation due to the people who were advised/permitted to spend at the top of the rollercoaster, just 6 short weeks ago. For a long time, we have been viewing our real estate market as a casino, other people spending the consumer's money. Call that conspiracy-minded if desired, and it has made us perhaps overly cautious, but I think/feel it has prevented us from yuge trouble going forward.

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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 7:58 am 
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Someone always has to buy at the peak price.


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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 10:32 am 
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Fred D wrote:
Price have come down almost 10% from the peaks in late March early April. That's 10%.

Where do you see these deals?
I see 3BR towns listed at $550+ & detached way higher
People may *speculate* a deline is coming but find one listing that actually sold for any kind of loss

$700 is the cheapest detached listed in the city, for the micro 1 car garage style

Fred D wrote:
The good news??? Only 15 new listings in all of Milton yesterday when we have had a string of 35-50 every day for a long time, which is what got us into this.

15 MLS listings
I can literally see 2 more exclusive signs from my driveway, 1 of which is brand new


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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 10:41 am 
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Location: 4th line / St Laurent
Mr.Peppermint wrote:
Fred D wrote:
Price have come down almost 10% from the peaks in late March early April. That's 10%.

Where do you see these deals?


This is what I do for a living - and we analyze every sale that happens every day since the market is shifting this much this quickly, to arm our clients with up to date information. It's not doomsday, but things have been changing fast. The very entry level detached that was listing for $700k in early April would sell in the mid 800s in multiple bids. No longer. ok, back to work for me :)

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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 7:05 pm 
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Well as a trivia piece the townhouses
at Wilson/Woodward were originally selling for
$35,000 to $39,000 back in 1979-1981


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PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 9:52 pm 
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Fred D wrote:
Mr.Peppermint wrote:
Fred D wrote:
Price have come down almost 10% from the peaks in late March early April. That's 10%.

Where do you see these deals?


This is what I do for a living - and we analyze every sale that happens every day since the market is shifting this much this quickly, to arm our clients with up to date information. It's not doomsday, but things have been changing fast. The very entry level detached that was listing for $700k in early April would sell in the mid 800s in multiple bids. No longer. ok, back to work for me :)


Fred's right, and unless you follow the prices on a daily basis it's tough to see. The monthly numbers won't even accurately reflect the peak and subsequent decline, as the highs were reached third week of April so the average numbers for the month are lower than the peak. So, we'll likely see a small month to month decline from April to May, when really it's a larger decline from the prices reached around April 20th.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:54 pm 
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Can't believe the deline thread died out
Apocalypse averted?


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:31 pm 
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It hasn't died out, people are just too scared to post, I haven't blinked in 3 months.

We're in the Bull Trap / Return to Normal right now, perfect time to trot out and buy a $1M bargain in Milton, right?


Attachments:
bubble-lifecycle.gif.jpg
bubble-lifecycle.gif.jpg [ 20.95 KiB | Viewed 60 times ]

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:40 pm 
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LOL, great post! In terms of the actual valuation we are back down to the mean as the current values are approximately 3 to 5% year-over-year over last year. So we have gone up around 30 and come back down around 25. (This doesn't reflect all price categories, but more so in the townhouse to small and medium-sized detached here in Milton. Different price points have been affected differently by all the recent craziness.)

Where will we go next? Who knows, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a little mini spike at the end of this month and through December as any buyers on the bubble will lock down purchases before the new mortgage rules kick in. January may be slow but the spring Market is really going to tell us what point of the curve we're at. Milton's normal spring market usually starts mid-January, but this is one year where we probably won't see that happen.
I don't think the topic has died but the traffic here has unfortunately go to way down. I do miss the activity in here, since it is at a slightly more sophisticated level than general Facebook talk (usually lol)

Nobody really knows where we are going from here, but it's important to watch for certain markers and things that happened so we're not reacting to old news. More information keeps you ahead of the game, and that's what smart investors continue to do, collect and analyze information on a regular basis.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:50 pm 
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Man, that chart really gets around!


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:57 pm 
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Hodor wrote:
Man, that chart really gets around!

Works for dope stocks too.

Fred, so I guess you are saying the "Time" axis here is just a few months to a year, if you are using such valuations as a mean value to deline to? I really do have my doubts, I think the plummet we are headed to may be a ways off here. On the chart, wasnt the "Take Off" in about 2012 once the Real Estate community managed to convince everyone - including themselves - that we had fully dodged the devaluation crashes in the US in 2009-10-11. Just my feelings anyway. Again, I have been for a while now taking our MPAC assessment with a smaller and smaller grain of salt -- what if THAT is our for-real value? AAAHHH!

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