Another wrench to throw into the mix... to keep the stalker-level to a minimum, I will say I BELIEVE you're in a home with 2nd floor laundry, is that correct? Have you ever traced the dryer duct to the outside? Some of your model has the dryer duct pass between the 1st and 2nd floor above the family room on it's way outside.
If your dryer vents are lonnnng and not cleaned out annually, the backup will trap moisture inside the pipe, and rarely,but sometimes!! enough to collect IN the pipe, travel to a seam (since ducts are not water tight), and drip through onto the drywall below. The periodic nature COULD mean it is only happening when your vent is clogged or the exterior vent flaps are frozen shut. Is your dryer taking longer than normal to run?
Just another thing to consider.
Potlight removal + flashlight is the best idea on here so far, if you're comfortable with that.
Likely scenario is that is is in fact the shower, but I thought I'd give you at least one easy thing to scare you momentarily, then rule out quickly if you can

Keep up posted!