oh my head!
Jessica
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| Its official..U.S. in a recession http://www.hawthornevillager.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=5005 |
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| Author: | williamb [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Its official..U.S. in a recession |
huge U.S. housing crunch will cause rates to fall, and yes canadian rates as well |
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| Author: | BuildingHomes.ca [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:39 am ] |
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Are you stating this as fact? If so, please provide some research. Otherwise you are spreading FUD. |
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| Author: | Steve Heath [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:08 am ] |
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"A weak housing sector has accompanied every American recession since 1965, but not every episode of housing weakness has accompanied a recession. An annual drop in the growth rate of residential investment (a good measure of homebuilding activity) of more than 10 percent has coincided with a recession five of the seven times it has occurred since 1965. (In 1967 and in 1995, declines in residential investment occurred without a recession.) A significant drop in residential investment therefore appears to be a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition, for a U.S. recession. " From http://www.aei.org/publications/filter. ... detail.asp (an excellent article, I recommend taking the time to read it). While there are some indicators, with housing and the levels of government deficits being very significant ones (as well as an inverted curve in the long and short term bond yields), a recession is still far from official. Since a recession is simply two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and since GDP grew 2.2% (http://www.commerce.gov/ , second news entry at this time) in the third quarter of 2006, the absolute earliest that America could go into recession would be at the end of the first quarter, 2007. Now, that's not to say that interest rates won't come down, but it is definately NOT official that the US is in a recession, it hasn't even begun one yet. |
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| Author: | dakaardian [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Its official..U.S. in a recession |
williamb wrote: huge U.S. housing crunch will cause rates to fall, and yes canadian rates as well
Not necessarly. In Canada, mortgages are financed by banks off their own funds, mostly deposits while in US, banks mostly sell mortgages to a few "mortgage underwriters" and do not fund them with their own money. In the other hand, the housing market in Canada is fueled by a totally different deman source than US. Here, the driving force is immigration while in US is affordability. |
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| Author: | williamb [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:47 am ] |
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by the time they put a post-it note on your forehead....they will be talking about a depression |
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| Author: | williamb [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:51 am ] |
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Meanwhile, the string of weak data continued, with the Chicago purchasing managers' opinion poll coming in at 49.9, versus expectations of 54.4. (A reading of 50 is supposed to be an indicator of recession.) Of course, I'm sure the bulls will rationalize that away as being Chicago-specific. like is said post it on your forehead....."you aint seen nothing yet" |
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| Author: | hockeymortgagemom [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 11:51 am ] |
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oh my head!
Jessica
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| Author: | williamb [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:01 pm ] |
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dak, you think that when Canadian exporters have nothing to export , lumber, etc etc....because the americans are broke and leveraged to the max, living on borrowed time, and layoffs start happening here...i.e. FORD (OAKVILLE FOR THE FIRST TIME), you think the blue collar workers will have 2 cents to rub together |
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| Author: | williamb [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:02 pm ] |
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darn, as we speak...FORD SALES DOWN 10% IN NOVEMBER truck sales down 13% hmmmmm |
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| Author: | NKMAC [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:21 pm ] |
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williamb wrote: darn, as we speak...FORD SALES DOWN 10% IN NOVEMBER
truck sales down 13% hmmmmm I work in the automotive industry, you can't take monthly sales data as an accurate measure of the company's performance, you really have to look at the YTD or year over year data. Ford may have slipped in truck sales in November, but if overall they are still #1 in truck sales, the Nov numbers matter not. Here is the most accepted industry source on Canadian Automotive sales figures: http://www.desrosiers.ca/pdfs/sales.pdf Nic |
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| Author: | williamb [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:39 pm ] |
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your to funny, the november numbers dont matter? well i guess YOU will have to wait til the jan-feb numbers...lol IM NOT WAITING |
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| Author: | williamb [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | great depression |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLjo7-J1qho&eurl grab some popcorn and enjoy |
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| Author: | dakaardian [ Fri Dec 01, 2006 2:20 pm ] |
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williamb wrote: dak, you think that when Canadian exporters have nothing to export , lumber, etc etc....because the americans are broke and leveraged to the max, living on borrowed time, and layoffs start happening here...i.e. FORD (OAKVILLE FOR THE FIRST TIME), you think the blue collar workers will have 2 cents to rub together
Your post was related to the housing marketr and interest rates, and that's where I responded. And, the layoffs at big three is not necessary a sign of resession, just a sign that they can not compete with Japanese auto makers. Toyota and Honda are building more assembly plants and hiring. |
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| Author: | NKMAC [ Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:39 pm ] |
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williamb wrote: your to funny, the november numbers dont matter?
well i guess YOU will have to wait til the jan-feb numbers...lol IM NOT WAITING I did not say that the did not matter, if you actually read my post. I said that they have to be considered in greater contex. As I'm on Mat leave, I haven't actually seen Nov numbers yet (I guess I shouldn't be concerned about work or something), but Desrosiers has yet to post Nov numbers on his site... Besides the US and Canadian Automotive markets are completely different in their habits. If you want something to worry about in the auto industry, I'd be more concerned with Kerkorian selling his GM shares. Nic |
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| Author: | themasons [ Sat Dec 02, 2006 6:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: great depression |
williamb wrote: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLjo7-J1qho&eurl
grab some popcorn and enjoy those quoted on the slide show sounded just as sure of their "predictions" as you , william 
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