HawthorneVillager.com

Yeah, GTA is out of my comfort zone price wise.

It's not easy to find too many nice and new rental units (lot's of 1970s-1980s houses) but I don't like those. I'm paranoid of building materials, mold, rot, etc. I like new (less than 5 years old). I also find majority of the more reasonable priced rentals are actually split into two units with separate tenants in the basement. That doesn't fly with me.

Here is a comparable rental:

http://www.lindaknight.net/Listing/View ... c=35753437

Regardless, for pocket change more than what you are paying in rent, I am paying for mortgage and property taxes except in the next 5 years, $45k or so will go towards equity while if I was renting, $0k would go towards equity. The rental above would cost more than I am paying now.

For me it was a no-brainer.

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It's actually 31min to 400 & 401 (42km)

Milton (Scott Blvd) would have been an additional 10km each way and the traffic on the 401W after the 427 is INSANE.

My old house in North West Brampton was also further (and the 410 is worse than the 401 out that way!)

Commute has gone from 1h-1.2h a day down to 30-35 min or so -- most of the time spent at the bottom for 400/401.

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Really doesnt surprise me that people arent interested in 1950s housing in west oakville, that need to be reno'd....

I dont think its that significant at the end of the day. It simply changes the dynamic of things

people are being cautious and taking on less risk, and also trying to minimize the risk they're already carrying. Part of that means less people are taking on big renos... if you can get a house for the same price with most of what you want anyway in a new build many people will go that route. As time goes on older houses are really going to bottom out.

People often reno old houses because of character and charm, and we're coming into an age of boring old houses that are stale, against new builds.

Its already happening in many please older houses are getting bought cheap and demo'd for their trees/lots.

Interesting.. housing starts are going strong:

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/ ... cond-half/

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And another with more detail:

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/ ... p-in-june/

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It means that builders are predicting prices are still going to stay for the short term anyways.

All the other areas, like Austrailia, US, etc. are all at record lows. We are near pre-recession highs.

What it means in the grand scheme of things, I don't know. Short term economists say it will boost the economy and GDP.

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What happened in the US was the builders has endless supply from all the fraudulent lending practices that were putting McDonald's employees into half-milion dollar homes.

And yes, it will take a long time to finish (well the high-rises etc) but the single family homes will have a good 1-2 year run before they are finished which will provide jobs, income, material purchases etc. so it's a very good thing for the economy.

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My thought is that builders would not risk being left standing with a ton of inventory of house prices drop drastically.

This is a sign of builder confidence in the market. I'd also say it may also be a sign we are near peak prices and it's a last run to make some good profit.

Look at what the builders did when the US housing crisis hit -- many halted production totally and in such created a bit of a supply issue when the market surprisingly and unexpectingly bounced back. This is when we saw prices skyrocket through 2010.

A large push for more new builds is actually good for prices -- it will help to bring them back down a bit by adding more supply to meet the demand.

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I was talking about Canada. In Canada, when the US got hit, our builders panicked (with right cause) and the starts dropped large. I believe house prices in Canada saw a hit of around 10-20% in various areas. What happened next is that interest rates went low, many people found their jobs/salaries still intact and thus they decided "nows the time to buy".

Throw in some HST, rising interest rate fears and combine it with a low inventory of homes available (since the builders had halted new developments) and we had a real estate frenzy. The best in a hundred years.

This didn't happen in the US. They had a building surplus -- a SUPER inflated large surplus that will probably take 10 years to sell through. This surplus was because demand was so high thanks to the shady lending practices going on in the US. When it turned out the "high demand" consisted of jobless no income types they had the problem whereby who can possibly buy all those vacant homes.

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Yep, who knows what will happen next.

Residents in Vancouver make on average less income than those in Toronto yet real estate is almost 40% higher. I don't think they get more credit in Vancouver than we do in Toronto so if you look at that model, the GTA could have a lot higher to go still. The peak may still be a few hundred thousand dollars higher.

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Looks like Toronto has over-taken Vancouver as most expensive city thanks to rent going up, up, up.

http://www.thestar.com/business/article ... anada?bn=1



Hmm, maybe rent is going to start catching up with prices, instead of the other way around.

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Right. So...then... the same thing *could* still happen in Toronto. So we may see $1,000,000 average home prices still in Toronto -- since Toronto should have the same "access to credit" that is keeping Vancouver afloat.

Sounds like a good time to buy, we still need to double prices before we hit the breaking point where Vancouver stands (if this is it).

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My point is not that I believe it's good. Or great. It's terrible. But my point is if it can happen in Vancouver, it can happen in Toronto. Right or wrong.

A few years ago a relative sold a VERY large house in Richmond Hill and moved out West to retire. They bought the new house cash for $550,000 - it was 25 years old, needed repairs.

People said...

"You are CRAZY, this market has peaked!"

"It's gonna be worth way less, the rent/price ratio is way out of whack!"

"People in Vancouver make way less than people in Toronto.. these prices don't make sense"

"Why would you sell a huge large near new home and buy this old house?"

"You are nuts."

....

Today the house is worth $1.1 million. Their house in Richmond Hill will probably for for around $750k

So the reality is, we could still have a long way to go.

Nobody in this thread has yet to point out why Toronto *MUST* be different than Vancouver. Why we can't see a $1,000,000 average price peak.

It was already argued it wasn't because of foreign investment.

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Im still waiting for bread to cost 10 cents like during my parents time...lol

As long as people are buying homes, it will never go down, because someone is standing in line right behind them to buy it at that price.