HawthorneVillager.com

dtc...good points...I was trying to lighten things up.
Chrysler's bailout was not in full and they're not exactly out of the hole. Hopefully they'll make a full recovery.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2 ... nment.html

I don't think the fundamentals mean anything in and around the largest and most important city (economically) in the country.

Sure, 10 years ago you could get a 3:1 house within 20km of the CN Tower. Not anymore, more people, more demand, same number of houses = no more 3:1 "fundamentals"

People will need to make decisions and sacrafices. The circle around Toronto is expanding and the further out, the closer to 3:1 (and less) you will get. That immiganary line will continue to grow as the GTA adds 250,000 new people looking for housing each and every year.

People will need to decide if they want to go the traditional 3:1, have a decent amount of spending money for things like cars, vacations, etc. and live with a longer commute or go up to 4:1, 5:1, 6:1 and live house poor so that they have the luxury of living in the heart of things with easy access to transit, restaurants, nightlife and jobs.

You aren't going to get within 35km of the CN tower unless you a) make a lot of money or b) are willing to go above 3:1.

_________________

Looking for something to do today?
Day Trips Canada - http://www.day-trips.ca

Interesting read...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/pro ... laims.html

Well, I hope you are right.. and that a 700k dumpy bungalow in Toronto drops down to 200k and then I will prosper, I can move in tomorrow and throw away my massive commute!!! And unless I take a similar pay cut around 50% of my pay, it will be nothing to pay down.

Unfortunately, I think if that dumpy 700k bungalow in Toronto drops to 200k, I won't be the only one trying to snatch it up! I think there will probably be 100 people (if not 1,000) just like me, similar incomes, living on the outskirts commuting long distances who will rush to put an offer on the house.

What do you think will happen then? It will go to the first person for 200k? Nope, price war! Up it goes! Back up to 700k? Hmmm maybe not... Back up to 600k? for sure.

It's still supply and demand and there are still a lot of people who want to live closer to the city and right now, the only thing keeping the balance is the "current price". If prices were lower, more people would be buying, more houses sold. If prices were higher, less people would be buying, less houses sold.

Everything is in check right now market wise (supply/demand). Maybe not debt wise, but market wise.

Interest rate rises will pull some demand out (especially on the higher prices houses) and that will put downward pressure on prices. We've seen this rate sticking and I personally don't think we will see it move any more than .25 per quarter over the next 4-5 years hitting a probably 4.5 or 4.75 in the end. By the slow steady increase many 5 year terms will come up and relock in, many will move from variable to fixed, some will move from fixed to variable and some will split. In the end, it won't cause the crash we saw in the states.

Without a 40/35 year term, a 500k house will cost a lot more to carry per month at 6-7% vs. 4%. That "different" in payment will likely be the difference in house prices you will see. There will be some buyers who no longer qualify at the new rate (although the government is already forcing buyers to qualify at the posted rate which is in the 5.5% range now anyways) which will take some demand out, but at the same time, the softer prices (not declining prices) will allow some people to upsize their houses.

And yes, believe it or not the 30 year olds are the ones buying the expensive houses, heck, they have 35 working years left to pay it off!

_________________

Looking for something to do today?
Day Trips Canada - http://www.day-trips.ca

Um thats incorrect. they arent lining up to buy the homes 50% down from peak because a ton of them are still unemployed. The other reason is why would you line up to buy a house (at any price) when there are 10-20 on the same street for sale (give away).

The US has a serious supply issue. They have millions and millions of homes without enough qualified buyers in the entire country -- at any price. This was the worst part of the economy crisis and the only reason they can't bounce back from it. Think of it this way, if there is one qualified home buyer (employed with decent income), there are 2-3 houses for sale.

They need to wait until the population increases before that issue is going away.

Canada has NO excess supply and many believe we have shortages in some areas, Toronto included.

_________________

Looking for something to do today?
Day Trips Canada - http://www.day-trips.ca

still all b.s. dabills, for 10 economists that predict a bust there are 10 more that say it wont happen, depends which paper you read that day. as long as there is demand, and in line with inventory, prices remain stable. Toronto and outskirts is also the economic hub of Canada. unemployment remains low and will due to oil, gas jobs. yes housing does provide, but there will also be housing, many jobs on sites are under the table, skilled tradesmen dont build your house anymore, its assemblers, mainly unskilled and under the table, they dont count in the jobs quota. no one has a crytal ball, if we could predict declines either way, i would be rich. and many others. that why i get a laugh of what will happen in 5 years, 10 years, etc.

A measure without the "when" is just another guess that will eventually come true. The true test is when someone can measure these things and actually put it to a date. If the facts are so clean and plain and simple and glaring and perfect and historic and understandable, why can't anyone say:

The market will drop by 12.7% in Q4 2012.

Because the facts aren't that clear, and it's not as guaranteed as they keep trying to flaunt through their endless articles and blogs. Usually it's like a psychic who says "celebrity x will die soon!" -- then 6 years later when that celebrity actually dies, they say "See, I told you so!"

_________________

Looking for something to do today?
Day Trips Canada - http://www.day-trips.ca

any economist will be right at some point, no matter their prediction of good or bad. their are reputable ones calling for stability, others in left field. they also preach to the masses, keeps everyone in line, i guess i dont conform to what im being told or should do. in your own right you are calling for many negative things to take place? whats your motive? besides warning some poor sap of over extending his/her credit, im sure your here with your preaching out of the goodness of your heart? ol skool started this thread with a date which has yet come to fruition, dabills hoped on board. now your saying 5 years. be more specific. actually you cant.

Not many people will listen to a weather man when he calls for rain "sometime, because I say so" but a lot more will listen to the same weather man when he says "it's going to rain on Tuesday and Wednesday next week" -- and is right.

Yes, economy is rough. The housing market will go through peaks and valleys. There are ups and downs. That's the easy prediction. To be honest, thats the one NOBODY cares about. It's like saying eventually we will get a thunderstorm. Of course we will. But that doesn't help you know. Do you hold out, stop going to the beach, stop golfing, stop taking the kids to the park -- waiting for that day when the thunderstorm will finally it. What if it's just a rain shower? What if it's a tornado?

What people DO care about, is if you can say "the market is going to decline by x% in Q4 2012 and rebound by 2015"... that's something people can make decisions on.

If the housing collapse being touted by your friends is in the same context as the weather analogy, what happens if you pull all of your money out of the market, sell it all off, rent, and the thunderstorm turns in to a 2 minute sun shower? And in 5 years the prices of housing haven't declined, but instead went up.

Maybe you don't care, maybe you enjoy living in someone elses building. That's A-OK. Maybe you don't like the beach.. or golf... but for those who do enjoy owning a building... or beach or golf... it does matter. It matters that they've missed opportunity.

It's all about risk. Like sitting down at the casino... playing a hand of poker. There is some skill to it.. there is some strategy.. and you can really use your head when making decisions -- but there is also a large part that is just luck of the draw.

_________________

Looking for something to do today?
Day Trips Canada - http://www.day-trips.ca

i dont see how your house dropping in value isnt negative. it isnt necesary and may not happen, you wont put a date because you cant. i work 75 hours a week, years building a business from nothing, im entitled to whatever i want, when i want it, i decide, not the value of my house, others may have problems, there will always be people losing their jobs. its a fact of life. if you feel renting is sensible, go right ahead. you finally answered my question, you are doing it so the young people dont take a risk. i dont think you are qualified to hand out advise!

Something I came across today. Not a surprise...

http://money.ca.msn.com/banking/homebuy ... -investors

It is a pyramid scheme like most economies to have that one really rich person you need hundreds of really poor people.

Chinese hate to live outside the actual city limits...

It is immigration in general though not just one group that brings new $$$ to the economy

if ive eaten at the restaurant, yes i can recomend, if you have vested interest in real estate, economics degree, been a landlord, lost or made money in a market drop, you can comment from experience, i dont think you have any of those qualifications other than to quote, cut and paste, and when you do paste, its negative. so you are giving advise. you even stated your were to the "young" crowd?

ill move on when i see balanced, intelligent, non biased information posted. until then this is a discusion forum open to all, no matter what their opinion, dont take it personal, as you stated its just a topic if interest for you, anyone can do what they want.