HawthorneVillager.com

I disagree as far as increasing rates because if the US doesn't increase its rate and we do, our $ goes up and that kills our exports. The BoC is walking a fine line. It can't afford to increase unemployment so I believe it will remain status quo until the US gets out of its mess.
The economy is far from having recovered. The only safe place to work is in a government environment where wages aren't subject to the private sector's profit standard and even those jobs will be under increased scrutiny.
Let's face it there are fewer levers to pull to improve the lot of the middle class. Let's hope it doesn't go the way of the Greek tragedy.

Spot on. The BoC can only go so far with interest rates before we get totally out of sync with the US and end up shooting ourselves in the foot.

We might see a further .5 or even 1% hike in rates, but until the US begins raising rates we’re not going to see anything significant happen. The US is increasingly looking like Japan which had 0% rates for 10+ years.

Either the commodity boom turns out to be a bubble and Canada joins the rest of the world’s economies, or we see inflation set in while the US economy stagnates for another 5-10 years. In both cases, the housing bubble corrects itself.

I believe we will most likely see a flat or extremely slow growth real estate market while fundamentals catch up. But that's ok, a 3% increase in housing prices (which is healthy) a 14+% return on a 25% down payment. I can live with 1 or 2%.

But we should also keep in mind there really is no "Canadian real estate" market, the averages are heavily skewed by Toronto and Vancouver so different cities will behave differently then the "average" numbers the media likes to generate headlines from.

Heck, just look an hours drive in any direction from Milton. You go to Toronto and $700,000 buys you something comparable to what you'd pay $450-$500,000 here in Milton.. Take the $450-500,000 you would have spent in Milton and drive to Hamilton and area and you can find something pretty comparable to what you'd pay $700,000 for here in Milton albeit older. But you can buy a really nice detached home for $240,000.. What can you buy for that here in Milton or anywhere else in the GTA..

Or take that $700,000 and buy a 3500 sq ft fully upgraded home just down the road from the lake in Stoney Creek.

And that's all just a short drive for Milton.

Let's face it you've got to sell a lot of $150-200,000 homes in Hamilton to make up for a single $2 million dollar home being sold in Vancouver and that will always skew the numbers because we are such a big country with so few people, scattered in pockets for good measure.

I think the notion that the-coming-mass-inflation-is-a-sure-thing needs to be questioned. Like Ol Skool said, the stimulus didn't really do enough to save the economy, as the economy is shooting off signs of slowing down, AND interest rates are going to naturally rise in sinc with the bond yields, which will rise when the fed stops buying them. Both of these are going to have a negative effect on commodities prices, as both demand and spec buying will be muted. The rise in rates will have a positive effect on the USD, which will always lower the cost of commodities. Since much of the (still relatively moderate) inflation we are seeing now is based largely on increased commodity prices, I don't really see how it all adds up this freakishly high inflation that everyone's afraid of. It can't be all based on USD money supply increasing, because the emerging markets are buying it up to keep their own dollars low, and their machines running.

More in the news... June is in... Looks like if you held out buying last year waiting for this years market, you are paying on average $50,000 more.

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/102054 ... rging?bn=1

_________________

Looking for something to do today?
Day Trips Canada - http://www.day-trips.ca

Even here in milton, I cant wait to see the 2011 Mattamy prices for their august release compared to the aug 2010 release.

That's a terrible assumption. Maybe people aren't listing because they aren't interested in moving. Many people made their moves/upgrades to bigger homes in 2008-2010 when everyone was certain that interest rates were going to skyrocket quickly from the all time lows and that HST was going to really increase the cost to move. I think many people in the "let's move in the next 3-5 years" decided to move then -- which is why we had record years. Now most people are comfortable where they are.

Low listings in my mind is a GOOD thing. Are the listings in the US low????? No, high listings means a lot of people are stressed to sell -- job loss, unaffordable houses, higher expenses, etc.

When you see low listings it means people are content and sitting tight. I know I can get 90,000 more for the house I just bought -- because the very same model on the same street did just that last week -- and sold in less than 2 weeks.

Does that mean I should rush out and take advantage of making a lot of money? No, because then I have no house -- and I need to find something else -- which will be just as expensive.

I could do like Dabills and sell now, bank all that profit, and wait until the big crash -- but I don't know if that's going to be next year or in 5 years.. And if it's in 5 years, it's very likely that even with alllllllll the profit I made on the house, I still won't be able to afford a house at the "5 year after crash price".

_________________

Looking for something to do today?
Day Trips Canada - http://www.day-trips.ca

no matter all the b.s. cut and paste data, prices are still up. wheres your predictions ol skool? were at 500k average, for it to be NOT affordable we would have to hit 700k. think of the equity you left on the table dabills. could be $$ in your pocket!

Can some one point me to the chart where it shows home sales are down from june 2010, as far as I can tell from the charts volume and price are up

old skool always has an excuse, the original post is prices declining, not listings, lets not kid ourselves here. your full of sh*t old skool, prices have gone up over last year in milton in the higher end homes, any dummy can see that. why you dont is beyond me. i dont worry about money or my house going up or down. doesnt matter to me. but you can still own a home and have quality of life. for those that dont, they have it backwards, i would never be a slave for bricks and mortar.

From Royal Lepage

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... le2089425/

he, he. mad? you got to be kidding me. no where near it. i just see a lot of b.s. being spewed. the reality is no one knows for sure which way things will go. i can have an open enough mind to realize this.

Listings always decrease as prices increase OS
It is great to speculate "I made $X,000 profit" while selling a house, but usually when listings are less it then costs you more to move & buy a new house (less supply on the market)

Either way GTA prices are still way up (an average of 50K more than last year) halfway through this year

And as I pointed out to you at least a million times already; last years sales figures were already artificially inflated because of a fear of the HST. Listings being where they are at now is hardly surprising (as many people who would have bought this year rushed to buy last year, having the dual effect of inflating last years sales and depressing this years)

So sales volume is WAY DOWN.

How does sales volume for 2011 look against 1901-2006?

I think everyone keeps comparing sales volume in 2011 to that of 2008-2010 -- the highest years in real estate history ever. Years even real estate companies called "unheard of"

I feel we are at the peak. You will see prices soften and even decline now. It has to happen -- real estate works in cycles.

I think the "bubble" predicted last year didn't happen and the "when will we see housing prices decline by 10%" -- what this thread is all about -- NOT listing volume -- will eventually happen.

The reality is, 10% is nothing compared to the rises in prices experienced since the beginning of this thread.

Yawn.

_________________

Looking for something to do today?
Day Trips Canada - http://www.day-trips.ca

Now are u gonaa say wait till july numbers come, oh wait I am sorry you meant june 2012. Even a small kid can tell the way u r saying, trying to postpone every month. At the end of the day a home owner considers the value of the house not how many got sold.