HawthorneVillager.com

Toronto is more expensive than Vancouver, and Vancouver is more expensive than many European cities actually

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/T ... story.html


Thing that baffles me is Dabills & Ol Skools idea that renting is better than owning, especially when most major Canadian cities are so expensive to rent in

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/102567 ... n-end?bn=1

Another interesting article. I would though like to point out this statement which mirrors my thoughts on all of this:



I've never once said prices can never go down. I've said that it is an impossible prediction and there has to be a catalyst to cause it to happen.

As long as people have jobs and credit is cheap, and supply of houses for sale is low, prices will continue to climb -- debt or no debt.

The minute we see a faltering economy (caused by whatever reason including debt ceiling), mass job loss, expensive debt, or increase in supply of houses for sale, etc. -- prices will drop.

My point has always been -- nobody can predict it. Everyone can easily say "it's going to rain some time this year" -- Very few can say "It's going to rain today at 1:24PM for 8.87 minutes". Do we forgo going to the park for the next few months because "it's going to rain some time this year"? No, we make a choice, and go with it.

This is the same as predicting the market. If one could easily do that, they'd be billionaires already.

Now, I will say -- if you look at the odds -- like a game of poker -- right now the odds are prices won't increase at the same rate in the past. If you aren't a gambling person, I'd not bank on that happening.

Of course, when the BOC dropped rates to near 0% a few years ago, I'd also say the odds were that interest rates would go up very quickly -- and I'd have been wrong.. and the gambling person would have prospered.

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ill move on when you stop spewing your b.s.

Did you take offence to that?

ha. ha. no sorry Richard. i did mean to quote daaabills. not drunk today, maybe stoned. not worth discrediting you dabills as you do it yourself.

Always having to get the last word in......can't just leave it rest. You must have some serious passive aggressive issues that you are dealing with.

Let's get back to the topic of the original thread....when will housing prices drop 10%. Not, is it better to rent vs. own in today's market, people are extending themselves on credit way too much, the Evil pitfalls of the HELOC.....

If you take a look at today's reports, most banks believe that there will be a correction, however, it will be minimal (yes, maybe 10%) at the end of the day, who cares....I dont. I am well into paying off my mortgage.....and yes, I also agree with some of the things you say Dabills and others.....for the younger 20 somethings, paying 5% down on a Single family 400K plus home is crazy. Yes, rent for a few years to be able to afford what you want, or can realistically afford. If you want that 600K home in Oakville, be realistic if you cant afford it and buy that town or semi in Milton or Burlington instead.

Ok that is not even english...
What are you trying to say?




It really is not that much cheaper to rent instead of buying (unless you are a short term visitor or something)

tsk, tsk old skool, others read the papers as well. no one has agreed to a 10% decline, please post your facts. the 2 leading economists are overseas, these guys predict 25%. imagine that. Scotia has predicted flat line for prices. remember the economists have been wrong the last 6 years. i guess it will be like you when they say told you so. the stars front page yesterday was housing bubble, irresponisible media. most reputables finance houses are calling that prices will not see double digits as they have been, then again they said this last year, and the year before that,

I fully agree, but the reality is, housing is principal + interest. If interest rates were higher, prices would be lower. Given the current situation, many are paying down their principal at a much higher rate than they would with a more normal interest rate.

On a 350,000 mortgage, at today's fixed rates, you would pay down around $48,000 of principal. At say 8%, you would only pay down $27,000 in principal during the first 5 years.

This means that 350,000 house is equivalent to buying a 329,000 house at a normal rate over the first 5 years. In both situations, you would have the same equity/amount owing after 5 years. That represents an almost 10% increase in prices to equal out.

Sure, in 5 years it could be an entirely new world. But the reality is, nobody knows what will happen in 5 years.

The reality is a 20% interest rate isn't very likely to happen again. It would mean SUPER inflation which is what the BOC rates are used to control. Generally, if you have super inflation, you have super wage increases. If you don't have wage increases in-line with inflation, you have major problems in the economy.

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because they have been wrong the last decade.

Old skool - what a novel idea...people buying a house they can actually afford.

most people take a 25yr mtg. at $1450 thats affordable. cheaper than rent by far, plus your building equity for yourself, not someone elses. he will have a paid off house, a renter will have nothing. all it takes is to read the papers and there various economists with different views. if your relatively young as you say, you will see selling in anticipation of a meltdown is a money losing venture. youve already lost. no worries dabills, i wouldnt sleep at night either. all good, no worries.

Banks win in a crash?, my god thats got to be the stupidest item you have ever written, and you have some good ones.

theres only 2 yahoos that believe your bullshit, you and ol skool, that should tell you alot, buts its not, why are you even on this forum? its for local community members. your in oakville, no relevance. i can sit and cut and paste data all day, just like u do, as i said, you need to justify your reason for selling, wife on you yet? how do you sleep at night? i couldnt knowing i made a bonehead move. no need to be so angry there dabills, its all good, lifes great, right on, as you would say. move on to an oakville board and spill your bullshit there.

Wow, I was able to get to your magic number Dabills:

Highlight Summary for: Option 1 Option 2 For a 25 year mortgage for $300,000.00 at the rate of 3.00%, your Bi-Weekly payment is $711.32
Mortgage Amortization


Amortization Schedule
Total Principal and Interest Payment for Term: $92,471.60

Total Principal Repayment for Term: $51,385.86

Total Interest Cost for Term: $41,085.74

Balance at End of Term: $248,614.14




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Option 1 Option 2
For a 25 year mortgage for $300,000.00 at the rate of 3.00%, your Bi-Weekly payment is $711.32. For a 25 year mortgage for $300,000.00 at the rate of 3.60%, your Bi-Weekly payment is $756.85.

Total Principal and Interest Payment for Term: $92,471.60 $98,390.50
Total Principal Repayment for Term: $51,385.86 $49,255.73
Total Interest Cost for Term: $41,085.74 $49,134.77
Balance at End of Term: $248,614.14 $250,744.27

If you question the rate of 3%, it was actually an option on the calculator.

If you were actualy having a discussion, it wouldnt be you always telling people that their opinion was wrong. Sure you post insightfull links to articles that prove teh point that you are trying to make, however, you call someone a troll for having a different opinion (with taht being said, I think f is just as bad, he is taking this just as personally as you are.
If you really think about it, for the most part, 70 pages long on this topic is rediculious, wouldnt you agree....if you were really having a discussion with people that were like minded, why dont you just PM them with your links as opposed to trolling and encouraging f and a few others to voice their dissention on the topic.

You pointed out that the topic and post had been dormant for a period of a week or so and then someone (who want you) posted a message. From going back to the history of this post, it was a question of when would housing decline 10% with everyone haveing their crystal ball out and pretending that they are the arm chair economist. Every one has opinion, hoever, not everyone has to continually be a douche and say nah, I dont see it that way, my silly leprechan relatives that I feel sorry for, my other portugese and greek relatives who really messed up, remindes me of what happened in another country...etc... Well guess, what, the topic has gone from the 10% guess to HELOC, leveraging debt, the state of the canadian economy and everything else inbetween.

What it comes down to, is you egg people on, while people like DTC and OlSkool seem to have a discussion and let things roll off of them instead of having to call someone out and try to prove a personal vendetta.

Some of your posts are just links to articles that you think others may think are interesting....if you really have no vested interest in the topic, PM it to them ans save us from another 70 pages of people trying to be the expert on predicting housing prices.

I agree that young people shouldnt take out a 400K mortgage with 7% down, but guess what, just because you say they shouldnt, they still will....and I can guarantee that you will have to respond to this post to try to get the last word in......and f....give it a rest.......they love you on here because you get soo mad.